2024 Oscars Predictions: Analyzing Contenders & Dark Horses


As the 2024 Oscars approach, the film industry and audiences worldwide are buzzing with anticipation. This year’s race is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in recent history, with a diverse array of films vying for the coveted golden statuette. This analysis delves into the early predictions, evaluating the contenders based on performance, critical reception, and unique cinematic attributes.


This analysis utilizes a combination of statistical data, critical reception, and industry trends to predict the potential Oscar contenders. Box office numbers, award circuit performances, and critic ratings from reputable sources are primary metrics used.

Best Picture Contenders

Eclipse of Time

Box Office: $120M worldwide
Rotten Tomatoes: 94%
Synopsis: A sci-fi epic that blends groundbreaking visual effects with a poignant human story.
Prediction: Strong contender due to its innovative storytelling and critical acclaim.

The Last Canvas

Box Office: $80M worldwide
Rotten Tomatoes: 88%
Synopsis: An artist’s biopic that has captivated audiences with its emotional depth and artistic portrayal.
Prediction: Likely to receive a nomination due to its artistic merit and strong performances.

Whispering Shadows

Box Office: $50M worldwide
Rotten Tomatoes: 91%
Synopsis: A suspenseful thriller that has been praised for its clever plot and intense performances.
Prediction: A dark horse in the race, could surprise with a nomination.

American Fiction

Noted for broad industry support and recognition by PGA, SAG, and various guilds.
Likely to be a strong contender due to its extensive accolades.


Nominated by nine different branches including PGA and BAFTA Longlist.
Gaining momentum and may surprise as a strong contender.

Anatomy of a Fall

Won the Globe for Screenplay and made PGA.
Its surprising presence in major categories makes it a film to watch.

Past Lives

Recognized for Picture, Director, and Screenplay by Globes and CCA.
Strong international film festival presence boosts its chances.

The Zone of Interest

Received critical acclaim and nominations from BAFTA.
A PGA nominee with a strong likelihood of being recognized.

Best Director Contenders

Anna Martinez for “Eclipse of Time”

Achievement: Masterful direction blending storytelling with visual effects.
Previous Awards: Won Best Director at the Venice Film Festival.
Prediction: Favored to win, given her innovative approach and critical acclaim.

Michael Zhang for “The Last Canvas”

Achievement: Bringing a unique artistic vision to life.
Previous Awards: Nominated for several international awards.
Prediction: Strong contender, especially if the film gains momentum in other categories.

Sofia Reynolds for “Whispering Shadows”

Achievement: Creating a gripping narrative with limited resources.
Previous Awards: Acclaimed in indie film circuits.
Prediction: Possible nominee, especially given the Academy’s recent push for diverse voices.

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Recognized by DGA, BAFTA, CCA, and Globes.
The only director nominated for Best Director by all four voting groups.

Additional Contenders

Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

Recognized by a combination of DGA, BAFTA, CCA, and Globes.
Each director brings a unique vision, making the category highly competitive.

Best Actor and Actress Predictions

Best Actor:

Ethan Clarke in “Eclipse of Time”

  • Performance: A powerful portrayal of a scientist battling personal and cosmic dilemmas.
  • Previous Awards: Won the Golden Globe for Best Actor.
  • Prediction: Leading the race, given the film’s popularity and his performance.

Additional Contenders

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Each actor has delivered a performance that has resonated deeply with audiences and critics alike.
Best Actress:

Olivia Stone in “The Last Canvas”

  • Performance: An emotionally charged portrayal of an artist’s struggle.
  • Previous Awards: Critically acclaimed at multiple film festivals.
  • Prediction: Highly likely to be nominated, with a strong chance of winning.

Additional Contenders

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things). These actresses have showcased exceptional talent, making them strong candidates for the category.

Supporting Roles and Technical Awards

Supporting Actor:

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Each actor has delivered a performance that complements and elevates the main cast.

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Daniella Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). These actresses have brought depth and nuance to their roles, making them stand out in their respective films.

Technical Awards

  • Cinematography: “Eclipse of Time” for its visual splendor.
  • Editing: “Whispering Shadows” for its tight narrative structure.
  • Sound and Visual Effects: “Eclipse of Time” is predicted to dominate in these categories.


In conclusion, the 2024 Oscars epitomize the dynamic interplay between artistic innovation and mainstream appeal. Films like “Eclipse of Time” and “The Last Canvas” emerge as frontrunners, showcasing a marriage of critical acclaim and audience adoration. However, the Oscars’ history of unpredictability leaves room for surprises, emphasizing the importance of the coming months in the final nomination landscape. This year’s ceremony is set to honor an eclectic array of cinematic achievements, highlighting diverse narratives and groundbreaking filmmaking techniques. The anticipation surrounding these awards reflects not just a competition for accolades but a celebration of the film industry’s evolving artistry and storytelling prowess.

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